Michigan State Spartans 2025 Football Preview, Prediction, Betting Ideas
Can Chiles improve?
Michigan State Spartans
Enough info to be dangerous: Jonathan Smith’s first year at the helm at Michigan State seemed to be all about setting the foundation. Having brought Aiden Chiles with him from Oregon State, it was disappointing to see such volatile play from his QB, 11 interceptions on the season to only 13 TDs. However, if you zoom out, things are at play this offseason that should excite fans in East Lansing. With a new AD at the helm late in the spring, Smith will undoubtedly want to get this team back to a bowl in ’26. When you look at his track record at Oregon State, he took a program that finished 1-11 the year before taking over to a 10-win team in 2022. Continuity and development will be key, as this team will not wow you with star power, but believing in this year's Spartans is a tip of the cap to Coach Smith, and based on what he did in Corvallis, he probably deserves the trust.
Program Trends:
2024 Record:5-7
2023 Record:4-8
Recruiting rankings (Big10)
2026(summer):12th
2025:16th
2024:13th
Returning production ranking (BIG10)
2025: 5TH
2024:10TH
Jonathan Smith has been hot on the recruiting trail this summer. Surely, with the new AD in place, the alignment will be stronger to get the program the required investment to be successful. Nick Marsh, the 2024 four-star prospect, is the can’t-miss talent for this season. 649 receiving yards as a freshman, and another year to mesh with Chiles is exciting!
Offense: Brian Lindgren is back as offensive coordinator. Another significant addition when you read into this team is QB coach Jon Boyer, who worked with Jonathan Smith at Oregon State from 2019-2024, a massive move to prioritize the development of Aiden Chiles. The offensive line got a nice addition in Matt Gulbin, one of the highest graded offensive linemen in the ACC a year ago. he will slide into a starting role. Vincic, who comes over from Oregon State, had very high grades from a year ago; they will join the likes of Stanton Ramil, a 6-7 300-plus LT, in what needs to be an improved line from a year ago. The skill positions bring back the Marsh, as mentioned earlier, whom I am very high on this season. Adding lower-level transfers like Omari Kelly(Middle Tennessee) and Crishon McCray(Kent State) will be interesting, as they graded out quite well a year ago. Can they assimilate into the Big 10? The RB room has a few different options, with Elijah Tau-Tolliver being an interesting transfer from Sacramento State, rushing for over 900 yards at the FCS level last season.
Defense: Joe Rossi remains in place as the defensive coordinator. The man has led three top 10 total defenses since 2019 at Minnesota, and sneakily, this Spartan defense was solid against the run a year ago. Can they sort out that secondary? Jalen Thompson is the standout returner on the line, Vansumeren is back also but did not grade out quite as good. David Santiago is the player to watch on the D-line. he transfers over from Air Force and was solid for the Falcons a year ago. Jordan Hall played 33 games in his first two years at LB. This season, he needs to take a step to prop up the LB room. Nikai Matinez and Malik Spencer return in the secondary, and getting Chance Rucker back from injury will surely be a boost, as he was getting starts in 2023 as a freshman.
Roster outlook in a nutshell: The offense should be solid as long as you believe Chiles will improve; he and Marsh could honestly be a nightmare for opposing defenses. Defensively, they are definitely the bigger question mark in my eyes, yet not only did they perform better a year ago, but they also have one of the better coordinators in Rossi. The line seems unproven, and the secondary wasn’t great last season, but another year dialing in roles and responsibilities could prove to be very beneficial.
Relevant stats: Michigan State finished 16 out of 18 in the Big 10 last season, only recording 19 sacks. Meanwhile, they allowed 36 sacks on offense, 17th out of 18. The Spartans were also second lowest in turnover margin (-8). Cleaning up the line play is clearly imperative for success in ’25.
One thing out of East Lansing: When you read things like "I think this is the best receiver core I've ever played with," you know Chiles is feeling confident about where he is at. he also was gushing about his connection with his new QB coach Boyer. I like it.
Schedule: Boston College week 2 in a non-conference rematch from a year ago, in which the Spartans lost 23-19(Chiles had a stinker) is enormous. At USC, then at Nebraska, is a tough first couple of games in league play. Michigan and Penn State both come to East Lansing. This schedule is no joke.
Prediction: I am pretty confident this team will improve in 2025. Smith has a proven track record as does Rossi in getting things going in the right direction. Couple that with Aiden Chiles who will only 20 years old in September and I think you will see a team that will be competitive in almost every game. If the likes of the Minnesota or Nebraska game was at home I’d really like what I’m seeing from a over/under perspective. But alas I think 6-6 is a win with this schedule, the pieces are there for this team to be a really sneaky group. I just don’t have the stones to make that call!
Game to keep an eye on: Michigan Oct25th. With the Wolverines continued question marks at the skill position, this one is sneaky if Chiles and that offense can put together some explosives. I don’t see Michigan putting up many points this season again, and I think Sparty could have some big time offensive outputs this year.
A couple of betting ideas: To think Jonathan Smith won’t improve on his 5-7 record to me is a bit naïve. Ill take Michigan State over 5.5 wins (-140 Fanduel). Also, Michigan State +8.5 vs Michigan (DK -110), I absolutely am taking those points in a game, and I would not be shocked if the Spartans come out on top. If you want to get wild Marsh to lead the Big 10 in receiving yards would be the Hail Mary. Hey, maybe Jeremiah Smith misses a game or two, but they would have to be juicy odds, and I haven’t seen the books release those quite yet.